La cosa che più mi piace di Krugman (oltre al fatto che ha vinto il Nobel per l'economia e scrive su NYT) è la sua straordinaria capacità di sintesi. Ora vi propongo due suoi recenti articoli apparsi sul suo BLOG DEL NYT. Negli articoli in questione si parla dell'INESISTENTE pericolo di inflazione quando si aumenta la base monetaria, con tassi a zero ed in presenza di TRAPPOLA DELLA LIQUIDITÀ (vedasi situazione attuale degli Stati Uniti e Giappone nei primi anni 2000) e infatti lo stesso Krugman scrive nel primo articolo : ...So the money supply broadly defined hasn’t taken off – a complete surprise! – and hence no inflation. Except that this isn’t at all a surprise; it’s exactly what those of us who had analyzed the liquidity trap predicted would happen when you expand the monetary base in an economy at the zero lower bound. From my 1998 paper on the subject (pdf): The point is important and bears repeating: under liquidity trap conditions, the normal expectation is that an increase in high-powered money will have little effect on broad aggregates … e nel secondo : ...So why am I bringing IS-LM into the discussion? First of all, I should have been much clearer than I have been that the LM curve I’ve been drawing is for a given monetary base, not a given M1, M2,or whatever. I guess I haven’t said that clearly, although it’s implicit in my old Japan paper (pdf), where I do state clearly the point that in the liquidity trap the central bank, while it can control the monetary base, generally can’t control broader monetary aggregates. But still, why use any kind of “quantity-centric” approach at all? The answer is, to refute the bad guys! Remember, in 2009-2010 there were a lot of people pointing to the rapid rise in the monetary base and declaring that massive inflation was coming any day now; some of them are still waiting. So I rolled out good old IS-LM to show that in a liquidity trap they were all wrong, that even a huge increase in the base would go nowhere... che poi a me ricorda tanto questo : Credo sia arrivato il momento di lasciarvi alla lettura dei due post :
HAWKS, DOVES, AND OSTRICHES e THE MONETARY BASE, IS-LM, AND ALL THAT (VERY NERDY) Buona informazione a tutti.
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AutoreLeonardo Sperduti Archivio
December 2013
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